Bear with me, as I'm not very good with statistics. As far as I can tell the risk of SIDS as of 2014 is 1 in 2,500 according to the CDC (obtained by reducing the 38.7 deaths per 100,000 to lowest terms). However, the CDC gives no information about the risk of SIDS for a baby whose parents follow all the recommended guidelines. In other words, the SIDS statistics include parents that smoked and wrapped children in large warm blankets. Is there any information about the risk of SIDS for a child which prone sleeps in a situation with a firm mattress, non-smoking parents, no extra bedding, etc.? It would also be great to know the risk of SIDS for the same baby sleeping on his back too. Please include sources.
The only information I could find on the risks of SIDS without other risk factors is this blog. It states:
Taking this into account, for people who have no other risk factors, here are the new odds (roughly):
— Chances of a prone-sleeping infant succumbing to SIDS with no other risk factors: about 1 in 20,000 (range 10,000–25,000)
— Chances of a supine-sleeping infant succumbing to SIDS with no other risk factors: about 1 in 50,000 (range 25,000–60,000)
(Note — the numbers don’t quite match up with the other statistics quoted above, because the estimates were generated from a few different studies and calculated in a couple different ways.)
However, the author admits that he cannot provide sources but claims that he looked at several medical studies.